Issue #39: The Worst NFL Draft Class
Which NFL Draft produced the worst class of players of the 21st century?
Hello, my name is Colin. Welcome to the 39th issue of The Wood Report, an eclectic smorgasbord of sports news and humor.
This Week’s Main Story
Last week, we got to experience the most hopeful three days of the NFL calendar. The NFL Draft took place, giving every team new reasons to believe that this is the season they achieve their goals. But there was something slightly different this year than most years. All that hope that normally pervades the event seemed tempered. Most of that can be traced to a crop of prospects that was underwhelming at best. The talk out of the analysts painted a bleak picture. Even the top end talent came with huge red flags and reservations. This tends to happen every so often. 2022’s problem was exacerbated by the incredibly weak set of QBs teams coming out of college. GMs all over the league told us exactly how they felt. They disliked them so much just a single passer was picked in the first two rounds.
It’s too early to say whether all this hand-wringing is justified. Analysts and scouts are constantly wrong. 2022 could go on to become an all-time class. Only time will tell. While we wait for that though, lets peer into the past at some classes that time told us were bad.
The classes of the 2009 and 2013 NFL Drafts are widely considered two of the worst groups in modern NFL history. Sometimes a class is weak because of its lack of clear Hall of Fame stars to headline it. Other times it fails to make a lasting impact on the league with a lack of depth at contributing starters. These two drafts fail on nearly every metric. The players in these drafts were less than memorable and led to the continued misery of several teams that drafted them as saviors. This week, we try to determine which one was worse.
While many members of the 2013 class are still going strong, after nearly a decade in the NFL, I think it is fair to judge the group as a whole on how it ended up shaping the league. The 2009 class is survived by just 9 members who played in the 2021 season, so the book is pretty much written on them.
We are going to measure both years on 5 criteria that I believe really dig into the heart of the discussion. Those 5 categories are as follows:
Awards: How many awards has each class collected as a whole? Are any players on a HOF trajectory? Pro-Bowls and All-Pros? There will be a slight weighting factor here as the 2009 class obviously has had longer to garner more accolades.
Quarterbacks: As with everything else in this sport, the drafts are defined by their quarterbacks. When discussing 2017 for example, inevitably it is brought up that Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson both went many picks after Mitchell Trubisky. The QBs are the most important part of the draft for most teams, so they can determine a good draft vs a bad draft.
1st Round Picks: The first round is a huge investment for teams, so if you miss here, it can be devastating to the franchise. But if everyone misses here because of the lack of talent, it can really throw off the entire league.
Late Round Picks: Were there a lot of “diamonds in the rough” that got unearthed in this draft? Everyone loves a good underdog story! Late round picks are anyone drafted on the 3rd day of the draft, rounds 4-7.
Rookie Season: While it does not define the career, a strong rookie season for the entire class can be incredibly memorable regardless of the future production. Which class came out strong to make their mark?
Awards
In this section, we are taking a look at the full career achievements of the individuals that make up each draft class. Starting small, let’s look at Pro Bowl selections. 2009 has has 26 players make at least one Pro Bowl in their career, with just 11 of them making multiple. Alex Mack led the way with 7 total selections. On the other hand, 2013 (in a shorter amount of time), has had 30 selections, with 18 of them being honored multiple times. Travis Kelce has also been to 7 Pro Bowls in just 9 seasons (with more likely on the horizon as he continues to be the best TE).
All-Pro nominations are a similar story. In terms of 1st Team awards, just 5 players from 2009 were the best player at their position in any given year. Just one them, Lesean McCoy, did it again. 2013 lapped that mark with 11 players getting at least 1 award and 6 players receiving it more than once. Cordarrelle Patterson has 4, all as a returner. If we ignore that specialist role, Kelce, Deandre Hopkins, and Tyrann Mathieu all have 3. It’s a clear domination by 2013, a much younger class, in this department.
Before we move on, let’s dig a bit deeper. In terms of top shelf league awards, neither draft comes away looking stellar. No one from either class has been bestowed the Offensive Player of the Year or Defensive Player of the Year award. And they haven’t even come close to fielding an MVP. You can find a couple lesser awards like Comeback Player of the Year (Matthew Stafford) or Most Improved Player (Le’Veon Bell and Patterson), but those don’t move the needle very much. The real juice comes from the Hall of Fame potential.
Hall of Fame Cases
Starting with 2009, a group that has generally finished their career, there are 3 realistic HOF candidates. For some of this discussion, we will be using Pro Football Reference’s Hall of Fame Monitor Score, where a score of 100 is the average modern-era inductee. Stafford currently ranks 30th among QBs on this metric. He just won a Super Bowl and is now in a situation that could help his case greatly if he plays well in his late 30s. He is in a tough spot, stuck behind several candidates with better cases; Championship winners like Big Ben, Eli Manning, and Russell Wilson, and league MVPs like Matt Ryan or even Cam Newton. That’s not even to mention the 1st ballot guys yet to be eligible (Brady, Rodgers, Brees). It’s a crowded field, so his chances look slim.
Alex Mack is currently 10th all-time among centers, but plays a position that is incredibly tough at which to get recognition. Only 7 centers are in the HOF. The two non-HOFers ahead of him are Maurkice Pouncey and Jeff Saturday. Saturday has been on the ballot fives times since retirement and has yet to collect the required votes. Mack is a similar fringe case that looks tough to bet on.
That brings us to the most likely HOF candidate from 2009. Lesean McCoy is 20th among RBs on the list with a score of 82. The only two players ahead of him not in the HOF are Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore, two probably first ballot guys that dominated at the same time as McCoy. While the long time Eagle might be slightly overshadowed by those two, he no doubt has a strong case on his own. I would say he should get in eventually.
Can anyone in the 2013 class, less than a decade into their careers, boast that they are on a HOF pace? I would posit that there are only two with the potential. The first is David Bahktiari, who is currently the best tackle in the league. He would need SEVERAL more years of elite play before he can even sniff, but he has been 1st or 2nd team All-Pro 5 years in a row, so the path is there.
The other is Travis Kelce, who, to be honest, has a strong case even if he retired right now. He is redefining the position in a way that Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates did before him. He is the undisputed king of TEs the way Gronk was at his peak. Gates, Gronk, and Jason Witten are the only non-HOFers ahead of Kelce and all three of them are likely to get in. At the end of his career, Kelce will join them.
So the Hall of Fame cases are probably a wash at this point, with the most probable outcome being 1 from each class. 2013 is the overwhelming winner when it comes to total awards.
Quarterbacks
I’ll say it again; draft classes are defined by the quarterbacks. It’s the position that gets the most attention by draft analysts, whether for good reasons or bad. 2022 was dominated by the QB talk even with every one agreeing it kind of sucked. Kenny Pickett being the only one to hear his name read in the first 70 picks will be a defining characteristic of this draft for years to come.
Our two contending drafts both have pretty awful QBs. The less time spent talking about them the better. Plus, there is little in the way of competition when picking a winner (see: Stafford, Matthew).
2009 had 11 total QBs picked, with 3 in the first round. Stafford was taken 1st overall by the Lions and we all know that he was a good player. Mark Sanchez went 5th to the Jets and he seemed good early on before things completely fell apart because it’s the Jets. Josh Freeman went 17th to Tampa Bay to have a pretty forgettable career. And after him, basically nothing notable happened except for 6th rounder Curtis Painter somehow starting 8 games in his career (he went 0-8).
Now let’s move over to… OH GOD, MY EYES! DON’T LOOK DIRECTLY AT IT!
Please take caution when interacting with the radioactive 2013 passers. The 2013 Draft is the last time only 1 QB was taken in the first round. That does not bode well for 2022. This is one of the worst gatherings of QBs you could ever assemble. The first signal caller off the board was EJ Manuel at pick 16 to the Buffalo Bills. He never held on to the starting job, going back and forth as the backup over 4 years in Buffalo. He ended his career with 20 touchdowns to 16 interceptions and a 6-12 record. This constitutes the peak of the class.
After Manuel, the Jets attempted to fix their Mark Sanchez pick by taking Geno Smith in the 2nd round. The Sanchez era ended in embarrassing fashion, culminating in the Butt Fumble, so things could only go up, right? Well, Geno Smith was an unmitigated disaster in every way and his most famous moment was the time his own teammate broke his jaw during a locker room fight. Following Smith, Tampa Bay ALSO tried to fix their 2009 mistake by taking Mike Glennon in 2013. These two drafts do a lot to explain why bad teams stay bad for a long time.
Both drafts were abysmal for quarterbacks outside of Matthew Stafford. 2009 wins this round. Let’s please move on.
1st Round Picks
Breaking News: The first round of the draft is the most important. Shocking, I know. Some teams bank their entire future on hitting on a couple top-5 picks. So when the first round is dismal, it can be felt around the league. Zooming in on just the top-32 picks, which of these drafts was better?
If we look at the best 2009 had to offer, you get a pretty nice set of 1st round picks. The 5 best players taken were franchise-type difference makers. Stafford (1st overall), Mack (21st), Clay Matthews (26th), Malcolm Jenkins (14th), and Brian Orakpo (13th) all started long-term for the team that drafted them. Even Michael Crabtree (10th) was a WR1 for a division winning San Francisco team. The middle of the draft had great talent while the early picks turned out to be much more likely to bust. Jason Smith (2nd), Aaron Curry (4th), and Aaron Maybin (11th) all failed to even get a 2nd contract anywhere in the league. The rest of the round was filled with solid middle tier players (Kenny Britt, Robert Ayers, Michael Oher) and flash in the pan performers that couldn’t sustain (B.J. Raji, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks).
The 2009 1st looks great in comparison to 2013. You could make a reasonable offensive line with the best players here; Eric Fisher (1st), Travis Frederick (31st), and Lane Johnson (4th). DeAndre Hopkins (27th) is a legitimate superstar receiver. Outside of that, the 1st round might as well have not happened. Two top-10 overall picks (Dion Jordan 3rd and Dee Milliner 9th) failed to even play out their rookie contract, which is unheard of in an era where rookie contracts are the best value in the league. In total, 14 of the 32 players selected were starters for 3 or fewer seasons. Even franchises universally praised as smart drafters couldn’t help it. Indianapolis took Bjoern Werner, Green Bay took Datone Jones, Baltimore took Matt Elam. A top-10 pick in this draft was one of the worst investments you could make (Miami traded from 12th all the way up to 3rd to pick Dion Jordan).
Based on the 1st round, 2009 is easily the winner.
Late Round Picks
The vast majority of Day 3 picks in the NFL draft fail to accomplish much in the pros. It’s far more of a dart throw than the first few rounds (which are already massive dart throws). So instead of trying to focus on all of the failed picks, we are just looking at the value gained from picking a gem. Which draft actually made it worth it to stick around?
One team that knows a thing or two about late round draftees is the New England Patriots. In 2009, they would bolster that reputation in the 7th round where they selected Julian Edelman with the 232nd pick. Edelman, the most accomplished late round pick that year, would win 3 championships and be the MVP of Super Bowl LIII. Other standouts from the class are: T.J. Lang, long-time O-line stalwart at Guard for the Packers; Jason McCourty, another future Super Bowl winner with Tom Brady; Pro-Bowl cornerback Glover Quin; All-Pro and WWE star Pat McAfee. Even considering they were all slotted at pick 100 or later, it’s a relatively uninspiring group without much impact (ignoring the cultural significance of the Pat McAfee Show).
Another trend with these two drafts is the Green Bay Packers and late round O-linemen. It’s no different in 2013. We’ve already talked about 4th round pick David Bakhtiari. GB managed to also pick center J.C. Tretter in the 4th round. Tretter is still starting at center for a very good Cleveland line and serves as the president of the NFLPA. Elsewhere, both of the Buffalo Bills’ current starting safeties were taken late in 2013. Micah Hyde in the 5th round and Jordan Poyer in the 7th. In 2021, Hyde made 2nd-Team All-Pro and Poyer made 1st-Team. Ryan Jensen is the anchor for Tampa Bay’s O-line (and also won a title with Brady). And the consensus best fullback in the league was taken in the 4th round. Kyle Juszczyk has been to the last 6 Pro-Bowls as the starting fullback.
In terms of late round talent, 2013 takes this round. That brings us to a 2-2 ties going into the final round. Which class will come out on top and which will be deemed the worst Draft Class?
Rookie Season
Career achievements are great and all, but sometimes that first season in the league is the most electric for a draft class. It’s all potential, before any of the sheen really starts to wear off. Even getting that one incredible season out of nowhere can be the difference for a team.
Looking at the two classes, there’s a pretty obvious split when it comes to the strength of the offensive and defensive talent of each. 2009 is where you go for defense, 2013 carries that offensive firepower.
In 2009, the first year skill position players were lacking. Percy Harvin won Offensive Rookie of the Year on the back of his ability as a return man. He had only 925 yards of standard offense, but collected over 1100 on returns, including 2 kickoff returns. The only player to break 1000 yards from scrimmage (rushing and receiving) was Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno. McCoy and Beanie Wells were fine, but not spectacular. Mark Sanchez may have “led” the Jets to the AFC Championship Game, but he did it while throwing 12 TDs and 20 INTs.
On the other hand, 2013 had multiple high level contributors. OROY Eddie Lacy led the class in yards from scrimmage with 1435 (6 rookies had 1000+) and finished 8th in the entire league in rushing. Running backs Lacy, Le’Veon Bell, Giovani Bernard, and Zac Stacy all had phenomenal years. Keenan Allen went over 1,000 yards receiving. Even the return specialist of 2013 was better. Patterson went for nearly 1,400 yards on just 43 returns.
Flipping to the other side of the ball, 2009 looked like it was packed with studs. Brian Cushing of the Texans won DROY, but he had significant competition. Safety Jarius Byrd tied for the league lead in interceptions with 9 in only 14 games. Clay Matthews and Brian Orakpo both posted double digit sack numbers and Matthews put himself in the conversation of top-10 pass rusher in his first year.
None of the 2013 players came even close to that kind of production. The DROY was Sheldon Richardson who compiled just 3.5 sacks and 12 tackles for a loss. Ezekiel Ansah led the class with 8 sacks. Logan Ryan had 5 INTs for the Patriots and was a generally good CB. The top corners in the rookie class were Desmond Trufant and Eric Reid. And Kiko Alonso had a great season manning the middle of the field for Buffalo.
So which class comes out ahead. Does the offensive force of 2013 outweigh the defensive juggernauts in 2009? Does defense still win championships? In the judgement of this writer, I believe that the 2013 rookies had a much higher impact on the game. Several starting running backs burst onto the scene, taking on significant loads for their team. This gives 2013 the advantage, 3-2. Therefore:
The 2009 NFL Draft produced the worst draft class of the 21st century.
If you disagree with this highly scientific method or the results, please feel free to comment and argue with me on Twitter.
Gold Medal – Wacky Baseball
Baseball is back and through the first month it has already given us some absolute gems. It gets its own section this week. First up, the worst way to lose a game. Tied in the bottom of the 10th, a bunt straight to your pitcher should be a welcome sight.
Okay, sometimes a pitcher isn’t used to that throw. A catcher should have no problem right?
Maybe fielding is just hard for everyone. Has anyone checked the ball for slippery stuff?
Yeah, that’s it. The pitchers need more sticky stuff honestly, this is out of control.
Seriously, look at this disgusting act of violence!
Hopefully it’s just the pros. Maybe college is going better? Just remember how many outs there are and you’ll be fine.
Screw it, no more throwing the ball. Just run with it. There’s no way to screw that up.
Baseball is incredible. Some of the best athletes in the world and yet no other sport offers this amount of chaos on a play-by-play basis.
This is very young newsletter still. I am working to grow it as much as possible. The best way support my work is by subscribing to the newsletter and sharing it.
Is This How You Play?
Patrick Beverly just wills things into existence
There is no way to guard this man.
We normally say goaltenders need to tend the goal… but maybe not this much?
I’m going to miss the Minnesota Timberwolves in the playoffs. No more protesters doing wild stuff mid-game.
News by the Numbers
.120 - The winning percentage of the Cincinnati Reds. This is worse than their team batting average, which sits at .203 (29th in the league). TikTok legend Joey Votto is doing just barely better, hitting .122.
4 - Consecutive regular season starts by NHL goalie Louis Domingue with a different team. In 2019-20, it was New Jersey then Vancouver. In 2020-2021, it was one game with Calgary. And then is 2021-22, he started a game with Pittsburgh. And now in the playoffs, he came into the 2nd OT of Game 1 for Pittsburgh, making 17 saves to win the game in 3OT. After that journey, he will now try to push the Penguins through the playoffs as the starting goalie.
45% - The total percentage of goals scored by just three Dallas Stars in the regular season. Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski combined for 105 goals, and Dallas scored just 233 as a team. If that line isn’t scoring, it’s tough to see them going deep in the playoffs.
51.19 - The average distance of punts by San Diego State punter Matt Araiza, setting a single season record. He had two punts over 80 yards in 2021, and set an FBS record for 60+ yard punts. The man nicknamed “Punt God” was somehow the 3rd punter selected in the draft.
Homer Bias Restricted Area
The Packers drafted a new tackle and um… this is an interesting highlight tape.
End Of Restricted Area
Thank you reading today. I love the draft because the endless possibilities really bring out my most creative thoughts and ideas. If you have any topics you’d like me to deep dive into, reach out to me on Twitter! Don’t forget to like and comment.
Keep Sports Fun.
Colin
Twitter - @ColinRingwood12
The Buzzer Beater
Bat Flips are out. Body Flips are in.
Fun fact: Out here in the boonie west, we called Knowshon Moreno: "No-Gain" Moreno, which tells you all you need to know about the strength of this class if he was a top RB. Great work as always Colin! Made my day to see the newsletter hit my inbox!